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    When it comes time to write a headline, try one of these first. One of the first techniques you should always explore is transforming your major benefit into a headline.

    Business cycle dating

    To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the background links and watching the videos.

    I am going to follow up with another piece describing how I use this information for investment decisions.

    In evaluating the 2008/2009 recession, the Council noted that while the Canadian economy began to soften slightly in December 2007, a majority of industry sectors raised output, and employment rose steadily until the third quarter of 2008.

    In mid-September 2008, the investment bank Lehman Brothers failed in the US, setting off a chain reaction in financial markets that effectively froze credit flows.

    Business cycle chronologies offer reference points for empirical studies used as benchmarks for business cycle and recession theory.

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    Background In May of 2011 I embarked on a search for the best recession forecasting methods. They were still very positive on the economy at the time, and my quest was not driven by their conclusions.

    While most papers dealing with business cycle dates rely on one specific method, I present and discuss a number of different dating approaches based on the classical business cycle.

    These are applied to German GDP data comprising 1970–2006.

    This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written.

    It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions.

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